KoS Disbands, NOL Booked Through February

In this thread, She Storm announced that Knights of the Southerncross is officially disbanded. This is something that many saw coming, as Goonswarm openly announced that KOS would be first against the wall after BoB was done. Apaarently AAA wanted in on the action as well, and beat them to the punch. KOS formerly occupied most of Tenerifis and parts of the other regions that were taken from LV a year ago. With YouWhat dead as well, and BoB on the ropes (I've got a private table reserved in NOL), eyes will start turning to the next potential hegemonic force. The time that I discussed in an early post where I predicted (not hard, really) the Northern and Southern Coalitions turning against each other is likely close at hand. There are other options, of course. The south could well enter Pax Goonia, and the North could all board the NAP train for the next six months, but where's the fun in that? My prediction is that BoB will lose Delve, and with it a huge chunk of members. They'll conduct guerilla warfare from the NPC stations in Delve, and may even be able to take space off of someone, but it will be a long time, if ever, before they are making too many headlines again.

The End of BoB and the Last Superstate.

Forgive the shameless ripping off of Francis Fukuyama, but I find the title rather appropriate given the struggle between the mega-alliances seems to be coming to a close. Churchill rip-offs by SirMolle aside, BoB is really on the ropes, and they may have their Thermopylae or their Alamo, but sadly the Spartans and the Texans lost those battles, and unlike those battles, there is no main bulk of the forces lying somewhere over the horizon to rush in and finish the war after the heroic sacrifice. When BoB is done, that's it. Granted, they will most likely live on, at least for awhile, but, despite the claims of undying brotherhood and whatnot, no alliance of that size that was bereft of space has long survived.

So, once BoB has been removed as a territorial entity, which, barring some miracle, must now be taken as an eventuality, the south will be rather firmly in the hands of what is now known as the Southern Coalition. My prediction is that, once things settle down, this coalition will show a few cracks, and trim some fat, but we are unlikely to see the major players go at each other. With the spoils of this war, both RA and Goons simply have too much to lose by fighting each other.

What will happen, then. Is this the "end of history" that Fukuyama predicted, on the EVE scale? My prediction is that, just like the real world, we have not reached the end of history. Pax Goonia is not the end state of EVE politics. In my opinion, the most likely course of action is the setting up of a new North vs. South sort of arrangement. The Northern Coalition and RSF are not terribly likely to stay friendly for too long, and we may well kick off another Cold War style conflict for the next year or so.

My hope is that the result will be a number of single-region entities, or regions divided among entities, which will lead to a lot more small-scale conflict and more work for filthy space mercenaries like myself. This, however, is rather unlikely to come to pass within the next 6 months, or even the next year, still, a guy can hope.