Forgive the shameless ripping off of Francis Fukuyama, but I find the title rather appropriate given the struggle between the mega-alliances seems to be coming to a close. Churchill rip-offs by SirMolle aside, BoB is really on the ropes, and they may have their Thermopylae or their Alamo, but sadly the Spartans and the Texans lost those battles, and unlike those battles, there is no main bulk of the forces lying somewhere over the horizon to rush in and finish the war after the heroic sacrifice. When BoB is done, that's it. Granted, they will most likely live on, at least for awhile, but, despite the claims of undying brotherhood and whatnot, no alliance of that size that was bereft of space has long survived.
So, once BoB has been removed as a territorial entity, which, barring some miracle, must now be taken as an eventuality, the south will be rather firmly in the hands of what is now known as the Southern Coalition. My prediction is that, once things settle down, this coalition will show a few cracks, and trim some fat, but we are unlikely to see the major players go at each other. With the spoils of this war, both RA and Goons simply have too much to lose by fighting each other.
What will happen, then. Is this the "end of history" that Fukuyama predicted, on the EVE scale? My prediction is that, just like the real world, we have not reached the end of history. Pax Goonia is not the end state of EVE politics. In my opinion, the most likely course of action is the setting up of a new North vs. South sort of arrangement. The Northern Coalition and RSF are not terribly likely to stay friendly for too long, and we may well kick off another Cold War style conflict for the next year or so.
My hope is that the result will be a number of single-region entities, or regions divided among entities, which will lead to a lot more small-scale conflict and more work for filthy space mercenaries like myself. This, however, is rather unlikely to come to pass within the next 6 months, or even the next year, still, a guy can hope.
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My money is still on GS and BOB stumbling over each other on their way to invade Period Basis, but that's just me.
ReplyDeleteKinda doubt we'd go back to small-scale warfare; even in the Northern area the conflict between CELES, NNC and others is drawing in more and more alliances. POS warfare, in particular in combination with Sov3-levels, require numerical superiority, usually resulting in groups of alliances going for each other.
BoB isn't gone, they may not hold off the fight as thought but as much as people may wish for them to go the way of D2/ASCN it isn't gonna happen. After all as hard as people wished the Goons would go they are now celebrated heroes and friends of MC.
ReplyDeleteGood Blog Matey!. Keep it up...I have it bookmarked. I am on smei retirment and good news like this is hard to come by. Thanks for doing this
ReplyDeleteAnonymous: First, please let me know who I am talking to. It helps me to put a name to posts.
ReplyDeleteSecond, As I stated in my most recent post, EVE history provides us with too many counter examples to your claim to have it taken seriously in the absence of evidence.
Sure, they have their pure unadulterated awesomeness to hold them together, but I think it is generally agreed that ties outside the game, as well as national ties, hold groups together better. Watch carefully, BoB is already starting to bleed members, and friends in pvp corps around the game are telling me they are getting applications already.
BoB may continue on in name, but the entity of the last two years is gone forever.
Nice blog m8.
ReplyDeleteI'd like some input on MC pilots thoughts about what'll happen with MCvsAAA if/when the bob conflict is over.
It's hard these days when NSN ain't part of MC anymore. There's just too much pew pew up here to leave any time over for speculations of the south. ;)
One of the interesting (or ironic) things you mention in your blog is the reference to Thermopylae and the Alamo, these heroic last stands have left an indelible impact on history because they have been written about. What is needed is a history lesson on the world of Eve. Perhaps one day someone should write that history. Because for me it is just events without context. How did BoB become so large?, Goons so maligned?, Alliances strong, and weak?, and territories fought over? The eve world is a microcosm - an economy, a body politic, and a world unto it self (although virtual).
ReplyDeletePerhaps CCP needs to bring in a historian to document the history of the world of eve, not fiction but the actual events – the expansion, the conquest of 0.0, the major wars, the changes, and the history as it happened. Tie the work of the economist and the historian together and provide a view of a world that shows how it all got to where it is today. I remember seeing a comment that the Eve Universe could last 50 years and it would be a loss for that history to simply fade into computer logs and memories those many years from now.
Well I ssume no one is going to look this far back but just in case.....I told you so.
ReplyDeleteBoB is not gone and indeed MC is now dead as the mantioned D2 & ASCN. The sadest part is MC was an impressive force in their time but its in the hardest of times ones true worth comes out. MC is barely worth the time for me to respond. However the months of people saying how BoB was dead never came off as lame as your comments did.
MC can thank a big part of it's problems to the likes of the fairweather members such as you and Winterblink that are nothing but attention whores.
I guess if you can't play Eve you may as well talk about...Although looking back through your blog to find this post it seems you talk as much about WoW, Tabula Rasa dn other games.....
p.s. can i have your stuff?
Aww, that's cute. You sifted back to a 3 month old entry to troll me. The funny thing is that I allowed for some miracle (i.e. the simultaneous decision by the entire Coalition to stop attacking BoB, and believe me, i was there) to save them. Still, the point of this article was not to dance on the grave of BoB, but to provide an analysis of what the political landscape could be like after the BoB superstate.
ReplyDeleteLike it or not, BoB is not the superpower they were. They're still potent, sure, but their space has been cut in half.
Also, I'm pretty sure I mentioned that this blog will end up having some thoughts on issues outside of EVE, and that I'd let the podcast and Massively column I put out every week cover my EVE thoughts and news.
Seriously, though. It's nice to be loved. Thanks for taking the time to come to my blog and troll me...twice. You put a smile on my face this rainy morning.