2008 Predictions

Because every self-respecting blog should have one, here is my list of predictions for this year, in no particular order other than that in which they entered my brain:

• BoB will be dug out of Delve, albeit perhaps slowly. Following this, there will be cries of "We planned it all at the barbecue of 33 AD. We got kicked out of the banquet room for some other schmucks."Following this, there will be a brief period of the homeless BoB that people have come to fear, but unless they find some territory to take root in rather quickly, they will go the way of D2, ASCN, LV, and so many others. There is no significant evidence, other than the self-righteous ramblings of the high level BoB members to convince me otherwise at this time.

• BoB' Departure from 0.0 will not create a power vacuum. Instead, it will create a war vacuum. Many alliances have thrown their entire operation into the effort of preparing for the massive struggle that we are now witnessing. These sides are still self-interested, and are not terribly likely to just peacefully go on their way once BoB is toppled. Expect boat violence between the Morsus Mihi lead North, and the Pax Goonia of the South.
  

• The North itself will continue its current path to stabilization, provided Triumvirate don't decide that they want another go.
  

• The drone regions are prime to see a big power emerge. Smashkill has been on the road to that, but has hit some stumbling blocks, recently, namely RA. My prediction is that 2008 will see a major power rise up in this region, potentially enough to form a coherent coalition to take on the rest.
  

• Tortuga will face at least one serious attempt to remove them from their new home. This may come from the displaced BoB, or bored Goons, but it will happen, and there should be a good show when it does.
  

• CAOD will continue to be a cesspit, just like it always has been.
  

"But, Crovan!" I hear you say, "What about your prediction and hope for small-scale warfare returning to the game at large this year? Isn't a lot of this mutually exclusive to that?"

The short answer is no. The long answer is that this amalgamation of power blocs around the game, and their coming together and beating the piss out of each other is a long and time-honored tradition in the game, but in between, there are periods of relative stasis while the powers all set up their pieces, annex new territories, and bully their neighbors. In these times, the mercenary thrives. Given that I am, at my core, and internet spaceship mercenary, I can't help but hope we'll see it again before returning to BLOB: Online.

Credit to Exekias for the "Sign of the Apocalypse" image.

The End of BoB and the Last Superstate.

Forgive the shameless ripping off of Francis Fukuyama, but I find the title rather appropriate given the struggle between the mega-alliances seems to be coming to a close. Churchill rip-offs by SirMolle aside, BoB is really on the ropes, and they may have their Thermopylae or their Alamo, but sadly the Spartans and the Texans lost those battles, and unlike those battles, there is no main bulk of the forces lying somewhere over the horizon to rush in and finish the war after the heroic sacrifice. When BoB is done, that's it. Granted, they will most likely live on, at least for awhile, but, despite the claims of undying brotherhood and whatnot, no alliance of that size that was bereft of space has long survived.

So, once BoB has been removed as a territorial entity, which, barring some miracle, must now be taken as an eventuality, the south will be rather firmly in the hands of what is now known as the Southern Coalition. My prediction is that, once things settle down, this coalition will show a few cracks, and trim some fat, but we are unlikely to see the major players go at each other. With the spoils of this war, both RA and Goons simply have too much to lose by fighting each other.

What will happen, then. Is this the "end of history" that Fukuyama predicted, on the EVE scale? My prediction is that, just like the real world, we have not reached the end of history. Pax Goonia is not the end state of EVE politics. In my opinion, the most likely course of action is the setting up of a new North vs. South sort of arrangement. The Northern Coalition and RSF are not terribly likely to stay friendly for too long, and we may well kick off another Cold War style conflict for the next year or so.

My hope is that the result will be a number of single-region entities, or regions divided among entities, which will lead to a lot more small-scale conflict and more work for filthy space mercenaries like myself. This, however, is rather unlikely to come to pass within the next 6 months, or even the next year, still, a guy can hope.

E-War Notifications and Removal of "Brackets"

In the latest dev blog from Tuxford, he lays out the plan for the new system of electronic warfare notification, as well as the ability to remove the icons that you see in space, as well as your overview. The example given involves making all the wrecks disappear after a mission to make it easier to target the single NPC remaining.

Both changes have merit, and the e-war change is definitely a case of, "About freaking time!" Along with the messages for jamming, target disrupting, target painting, and sensor dampening, the sample screen shot shows icons that indicate who is scrambling and webbing you, as well. Given that people were asking for these around the time I joined the game, I think it's nice that CCP has finally gotten around to it, but hey, better late than never, I suppose.

What I don't really like so much is that these e-war notifiers are, in their current form, included as an overview column. Personally, my overview settings are usually pretty crowded, as is, and I'm not terribly keen on adding another column. The icons seem pretty small, so as long as they align to the very left of the column, you should be able to make them small enough to not be too obtrusive. Still, I think some of the ideas put out by players in the past hold quite a lot of merit as well. I know I have seen ideas from Haffrage in the past that involved icons fixed at the bottom of the screen, to the right of the module slots. That has its drawbacks as well (namely having to mouse-over to see the name of the offending e-war party), but it would leave my overview alone.

All in all, I think these changes represent the positive, trend I mentioned in the last post about CCP waking up and listening to its players more intently since the massive rabblage over the carrier nerf discussion a few months ago. Then again, They have been serving me some rather delicious kool-aid, lately...

Don't Lynch Zulupark...

I'm sure Zulupark is ready for CCP to hire a new content dev to make the dev blog posts that get the community running for their pitchforks and torches.

The proposed changes, while far from perfect, I think still represent a step in the right direction as far as CCP's mindset goes. Yes, the Amarr lack some punch, currently. The reduction of base armor resistances will help that, full stop. Yes, the shield explosive nerf does represent a sort of stealth boost to Minmatar, but it's hardly earth-shattering. I think it's a fairly safe bet that we'll see these changes on TQ in the next major update, with perhaps only minor tweaking of the percentages (10% down to 7.5%, for example).

The ship slot changes have drawn slightly less bile and pitchfork-waving from the community, but still have some major flaws. Yes, the Deimos change is silly. It would be much better to lose that high slot than one of the lows, especially with the pretense of making it a tanking boat with the new rep bonus. No, it's not really feasible to fit that fifth turret on the Moa and Omen hulls without a corresponding change in grid. All the same, though, after following the early part of the thread, it seems that CCP is actually paying attention to what is being said, and I have this funny feeling in the pit of my stomach that tells me they may do something about it, either that or I had some bad sushi.

I promise not to rant...much.

If this post is the only one present on the blog when you are reading it, chances are you are a friend, a friend of a friend, have powerful Google-fu, or are somehow affiliated with me in-game.

Other EVE blogs exist, I know, but I always feel (quite conceitedly) that I have something more to add to the conversation. This space exists for me to indulge that desire to render my opinion on various matters related to EVE, as well as to provide news and analysis of said news. I plan on having a healthy mix of current events and op-ed posts in here. For guides to the game, I encourage you to visit my other contributions to fan publications, namely the Warp Drive Active Podcast and EVE-Tribune.

One of the functions this blog will also serve is to provide links to my contributions to the above fan publications, both of which are definitely to be applauded for their quality and contribution to the community.

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